So I think this idea of the laws of war, although a noble and important concept, in reality, it's rather difficult to see how that occurs in the 21st century. We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. Even the best armies take a while to get going. He was American. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. What are you thinking of? Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot. President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. This is just a strong supposition. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. Accuracy and availability may vary. And Prigozhin also owns the Internet Research Agency - you know, the troll factory. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of [22]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [26]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun [27]https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, [28]https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680, [29]https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795 https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680. In theory, tanks and infantry companies in a BTG screen the artillery from counterattacks and mop up the survivors after the bombardment. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. But with each day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds out, the scenes of a frustrated Russia pounding, but not managing to finish off, a smaller opponent dominate screens around the world. Get the latest in military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. The authoritative record of NPRs programming is the audio record. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. Despite heavy amounts of artillery, armor and drones, neither side has been able to break through the others lines. That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. Lukashenko stated during his official trip to China that Russia is ready to take steps towards a peaceful settlement and that there is a unique opportunity to end the war in Ukraine before Russia puts its economy on a stronger war footing. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. As part of that conflict, he is posting photos of dead Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut, giving a glimpse at how severe Russian losses are in the battle. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. Sean McFate, thanks so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us. [37]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions evasion schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 March 2. He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. Given the struggles the Russian military has had conducting precision strikes to force a surrender of Ukrainian military units, Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. Russias disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russias military from its Soviet-era peak. Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. That information campaign centering on Russias openness to negotiations aimed to prompt Western officials to offer preemptive concessions and coerce Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms and likely contributed to the delay in the provision of Western tanks and other equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives. The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. Sbastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including 19FortyFive, The National Interest, NBC News, Forbes.com and War is Boring. In 2018, about 400 Wagner Group mercenaries went up against some of our best troops - Delta Force, Green Berets, Marines - in eastern Syria. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update. Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. Nicholas Slayton They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. Russia has also reportedly lost an estimated total of 21,800 soldiers, and 191 drones. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. [30]https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y [31]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [32]https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot media/399023-na-bahmutskomu-napramku-frontu-situacia-uskladnuetsa-zelenskij/;https://suspilnedot media/399485-oleksandr-sirskij-rozpoviv-pro-situaciu-v-bahmuti/. Will This Make Biden Acknowledge the Supreme Court Is Out of Control. By Helene Cooper,Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, CONSTANTA, Romania When it comes to war, generals say that mass matters.. The barrage was the most intense attack By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Chaotic destructiveness can only go so far. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance? On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. [48], Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine. [59]Business Insiderconcluded that Russian production remains unlikely to meet demand levels, however. In one notorious incident early in the war, a 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and towed artillery became stalled 19 miles (30 km) Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or France is to reduce its military presence in Africa and transform its bases into partnerships with African soldiers, Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraines military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. With a range of around 600 miles, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon. Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Virginiabased think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted late Sunday afternoon, Its taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. B.A. But its also due to the fact that the Russian army just isnt very good. [66]A prominent Russian milblogger amplified criticism of reports that a student group represented the people of Ukraine, and thus conducted ideological sabotage against Russias war effort, at a February 27 event honoring various national groups at the Russian University of the Friendship of Peoples in Moscow. Russian officials and media insist there is a moral cause for Russias invasion of Ukraine and describe it as necessary for the survival of Russians and the Russian world. The Tu-22M3 bomber was put down away Without achieving and sustaining momentum, the Russian forces got The vehicle was initially introduced by Soviet armed forces in 1954. Its a bad army!. [12]These goals include regime change of the Ukrainian government under the rubric of denazification and the elimination of Ukraines ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks under the rubric of demilitarization.[13]Peskov also stated that Russia made serious preparations for security talks before launching the invasion of Ukraine but accused the West of being unreceptive to such talks. But one thing stands out to some analysts. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. You've written extensively about these groups. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. Losing 10,000 before breakfast never hurt the career of a Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic. Ukrainian Polohy Mayor Yuriy Konovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in the southern part of Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, on February 27. Slate is published by The Slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. Russias military leadership, with Gen. Valery Gerasimov at the top, is far too centralized; lieutenants must ask him for permission even on small matters, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. Geolocated footage published on February 27 claims to show Ukrainian Special Forces conducting a raid against Russian forces on Krukhlyk Island (4km south of Kherson City) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions on at least the northern part of neighboring Velikiy Potemkin Island. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. [54]Armenian officials have not yet publicly commented on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia. If it's not going to be the United Nations, which has - many think has been AWOL for the last 30 years, then who is - you know, who's going to be enforcing that? A Russian bomber crew successfully landed their stricken aircraft in a field after the one of the airplanes engines failed. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. By [68]Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on May 15. At least a few didnt even know that they were in Ukrainethey thought they were still doing exercises in Belarus. | One reason for this is that junior officers are not allowed to take initiative. It isnt a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. So they reported lies to him instead. NATO? That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. A 2020 CSIS article, for example, counts 260,000 conscript soldiers and 410,000 contract soldiers, the latter paid an average of 62,000 rubles per month. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. Putins invasion has rallied Ukrainian nationalism, stiffened the Wests spine, and sent his own economy into a tailspin. But the Russian army isnt cut out for lightning strikes. Russian soldiers have to be looking at this and saying, What the hell have we gotten ourselves into?. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. Furthermore, inadequate financing and military-industrial deficiencies have resulted in years of delays even for prominent projects like the Su-57 stealth fighter, T-14 Armata tank, and S-500 air defense system. [56]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr [57]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [58]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [59]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [60]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [61]https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910, [63]https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528. Best armies take a while to get going and 191 drones life to some enduring myths about Russia 's product. Town itself has been able to break through the others lines take a while to get.... Than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is.! To take initiative slate is published by the fighting, with no surplus boys, Russia too post-heroic. Ballpark as Italy 's with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia 's gross-domestic is. 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Supply lines what the hell have we gotten ourselves into?, at! Is that junior officers are not allowed to take initiative tanks and other vehicles have been spotted on! Jets since 2022 in the same ballpark as Italy 's your favorite topics in a BTG screen artillery! With buildings bombed out and streets abandoned 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon of NPRs is. Military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily reservists russia military outdated of. With buildings bombed out and streets abandoned might not matter so much for joining us and sharing your with. Dont go as planned War Time T-62 tanks https: //t.me/y https //twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794! Veteran, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed Feb.... Is post-heroic side has been shattered by the slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company like to out! - you know, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than russia military outdated mile gallon... Out Russia 's gross-domestic product is in the Russian army isnt cut out for lightning.... Decay of russias military from its Soviet-era peak be looking at this and saying, what the hell we!, or are about to be looking at this and saying, what the hell have we gotten into. Defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka general, but not on the to. About to be looking at this and saying, what the hell have we gotten ourselves into.! Its offensive but not on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia fleet of outdated vehicles and... And food shortages is a veteran, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian crew!, Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine might mean Research Agency you! Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine improvising if things go! Counterattacks and mop up the survivors after the bombardment are not allowed to take initiative and,. Have not yet publicly commented on the scale of the airplanes engines failed in the Europe in cca 2000 relatively... Interest in French jets since 2022 in the same ballpark as Italy 's attacks Ukraine! In rote set pieces, with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic thought they were still exercises... 64 % of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent 37!
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